Thank Goodness

I didn't get home in time to make an online investment in the Utah Jazz.

Thank goodness.

The line can only move one way

Game 5 of the NBA West Finals is a classic optimization opportunity.

The Spurs are 7 1/2 point favorites at most books, 7 at some others. And a check of the betting trends are pretty heavily tilted towards the Spurs, approximately 65 percent of the wagers are coming in on the home team.

The play here is this: Wait until the last 30 minutes before game time, giving the books every chance possible to attract money on Utah by moving the line up, then take Utah and the points. It seems reasonable that the line will get to 8 1/2, 9 seems like a lot. But in any case, the line can only go one way, and that's up for the dog.

To show the power of the trend, think about this: I got an email from the marketing dude at oddsmaker.com informing me that the wagering was heavy on the Pistons for Eastern Game 4, and the Pistons have a solid history in this situation, so I should jump on the Piston bandwagon and get some while the getting is good. (As a matter of fact the line on the game moved from Cleveland -1 to Detroit -1.)

And how did it come out? Cleveland won and covered. Trust me, betting against the trend pays off a lot more than you might think.

We're number 40!!!!

Normally being in 40th isn't that big of a deal.

But yours truly, a.k.a. rhino95, is 40th of more than 7700 in the Wagerline NHL contest, with a 17,290 unit gain on the season as of Saturday morning.

But the real reason for the braggadocio is the winning percentage: 80.32. At 57-14 for the season, rhino95 is at least 12 percentage points better than anybody else in the Top 50.

What I really want to do is crack the Top 5, that would put me in line to win some cash, anywhere from $300 to $600, or a big screen TV if I manage to finish on the very top of the pile.

I've never had success like this before, so it could take some getting used to.

My picks for Saturday:

• Buf +106
• Tor/Ott under 6'
  

Wish me luck.

Value

I listen to "The Rage" on Sirius 186 most afternoons. While the banter is fun to listen to, I'm disappointed the guys on the show have bought into the idea that there is "value" in a selection.

Stick to the rules. The first rule of wagering is:

"Only bet on winners."

All else is rationalization for making bad picks.

The guys also yammer incessantly about prices being too high on hockey when the odds are worst than -200. In hockey the key to winning is all about finding disconnection between the odds and the likelihood of your team winning the game. Laying -250 is a solid investment if your team is 80 percent likely to win the game.

Super Bowl XLI

I think there are three acceptable investing strategies for XLI:

• Take the Bears on the moneyline. You get +200.
• Take the Colts and lay the points. All the better if you can de-juice at -105.
• Middle by taking the Bears and the points on one ticket and the Colts on the moneyline on another ticket. At least one ticket has to cash in, and with a little luck both could win.

If you want to tease the game, I suggest you tease the Bears to 13 and the Under to 54.

Good luck.

Fiesta time

Barely got to my computer in time to take Boise State and 7 in the Fiesta Bowl.

The Fox wags all were so condescending toward the Broncos that I nearly vomited. I really doubt the Broncos will win the game, but I do not feel they will be intimidated by the Sooners or overwhelmed by the setting. Having been to the Fiesta Bowl as part of the huge Utah contingent, I can tell you that once things get going a BCS game is like any other.

And, the Boise State team and fans are known throughout the Mountain region for their arrogance.

So as the Fox announcers fawn over the Sooners ("great challenge" as they go to commercial in the first quarter), don't be surprised if the Broncos turn out to be all the Sooners care to deal with by the time the game is over.

Saturday NBA

Utah giving 11 to Portland sounds like a lot. While the model says the Jazz could be expected to cruise to an easy 18-point win, the reality if the NBA is that teams don't really care if they win by 9 any more than if they win by 11. Just ask the last night's Golden State bettors.

But teams do care and play hard early in the game, and Utah is a 3 1/2 point 1st quarter favorite. I've taken the Jazz on that one. The risk here is that the teams might play without the urgency of purpose, using the risk window to feel out the opposition and make adjustments.

But the Blazers are coming to Salt Lake after a tough home loss Friday night, and the Jazz had the night off after an embarrassing loss to the Spurs. Utah should be determined while Portland is likely to be tired.

Also:

• Wizards +3 at Milwaukee

Good luck.

Fridday ballin'

Here are my favored choices for Friday night NBA:

• Lakers -5
• Magic + 6 1/2
• Cavs -6
• 1st Quarter: Nuggets -1
  

Good luck.